We consider the problem of dynamic pricing of a product in the presence of feature-dependent price sensitivity. Developing practical algorithms that can estimate price elasticities robustly, especially when information about no purchases (losses) is not available, to drive such automated pricing systems is a challenge faced by many industries. Based on the Poisson semi-parametric approach, we construct a flexible yet interpretable demand model where the price related part is parametric while the remaining (nuisance) part of the model is non-parametric and can be modeled via sophisticated machine learning (ML) techniques. The estimation of price-sensitivity parameters of this model via direct one-stage regression techniques may lead to biased estimates due to regularization. To address this concern, we propose a two-stage estimation methodology which makes the estimation of the price-sensitivity parameters robust to biases in the estimators of the nuisance parameters of the model. In the first-stage we construct estimators of observed purchases and prices given the feature vector using sophisticated ML estimators such as deep neural networks. Utilizing the estimators from the first-stage, in the second-stage we leverage a Bayesian dynamic generalized linear model to estimate the price-sensitivity parameters. We test the performance of the proposed estimation schemes on simulated and real sales transaction data from the Airline industry. Our numerical studies demonstrate that our proposed two-stage approach reduces the estimation error in price-sensitivity parameters from 25\% to 4\% in realistic simulation settings. The two-stage estimation techniques proposed in this work allows practitioners to leverage modern ML techniques to robustly estimate price-sensitivities while still maintaining interpretability and allowing ease of validation of its various constituent parts.

Markowitz mean-variance portfolios with sample mean and covariance as input parameters feature numerous issues in practice. They perform poorly out of sample due to estimation error, they experience extreme weights together with high sensitivity to change in input parameters. The heavy-tail characteristics of financial time series are in fact the cause for these erratic fluctuations of weights that consequently create substantial transaction costs. In robustifying the weights we present a toolbox for stabilizing costs and weights for global minimum Markowitz portfolios. Utilizing a projected gradient descent (PGD) technique, we avoid the estimation and inversion of the covariance operator as a whole and concentrate on robust estimation of the gradient descent increment. Using modern tools of robust statistics we construct a computationally efficient estimator with almost Gaussian properties based on median-of-means uniformly over weights. This robustified Markowitz approach is confirmed by empirical studies on equity markets. We demonstrate that robustified portfolios reach the lowest turnover compared to shrinkage-based and constrained portfolios while preserving or slightly improving out-of-sample performance.

Recommendation Systems (RSs) are ubiquitous in modern society and are one of the largest points of interaction between humans and AI. Modern RSs are often implemented using deep learning models, which are infamously difficult to interpret. This problem is particularly exasperated in the context of recommendation scenarios, as it erodes the user's trust in the RS. In contrast, the newly introduced Tsetlin Machines (TM) possess some valuable properties due to their inherent interpretability. TMs are still fairly young as a technology. As no RS has been developed for TMs before, it has become necessary to perform some preliminary research regarding the practicality of such a system. In this paper, we develop the first RS based on TMs to evaluate its practicality in this application domain. This paper compares the viability of TMs with other machine learning models prevalent in the field of RS. We train and investigate the performance of the TM compared with a vanilla feed-forward deep learning model. These comparisons are based on model performance, interpretability/explainability, and scalability. Further, we provide some benchmark performance comparisons to similar machine learning solutions relevant to RSs.

We propose an approach for semantic imitation, which uses demonstrations from a source domain, e.g. human videos, to accelerate reinforcement learning (RL) in a different target domain, e.g. a robotic manipulator in a simulated kitchen. Instead of imitating low-level actions like joint velocities, our approach imitates the sequence of demonstrated semantic skills like "opening the microwave" or "turning on the stove". This allows us to transfer demonstrations across environments (e.g. real-world to simulated kitchen) and agent embodiments (e.g. bimanual human demonstration to robotic arm). We evaluate on three challenging cross-domain learning problems and match the performance of demonstration-accelerated RL approaches that require in-domain demonstrations. In a simulated kitchen environment, our approach learns long-horizon robot manipulation tasks, using less than 3 minutes of human video demonstrations from a real-world kitchen. This enables scaling robot learning via the reuse of demonstrations, e.g. collected as human videos, for learning in any number of target domains.

By transferring knowledge from large, diverse, task-agnostic datasets, modern machine learning models can solve specific downstream tasks either zero-shot or with small task-specific datasets to a high level of performance. While this capability has been demonstrated in other fields such as computer vision, natural language processing or speech recognition, it remains to be shown in robotics, where the generalization capabilities of the models are particularly critical due to the difficulty of collecting real-world robotic data. We argue that one of the keys to the success of such general robotic models lies with open-ended task-agnostic training, combined with high-capacity architectures that can absorb all of the diverse, robotic data. In this paper, we present a model class, dubbed Robotics Transformer, that exhibits promising scalable model properties. We verify our conclusions in a study of different model classes and their ability to generalize as a function of the data size, model size, and data diversity based on a large-scale data collection on real robots performing real-world tasks. The project's website and videos can be found at robotics-transformer.github.io

Optimizing energy consumption for robot navigation in fields requires energy-cost maps. However, obtaining such a map is still challenging, especially for large, uneven terrains. Physics-based energy models work for uniform, flat surfaces but do not generalize well to these terrains. Furthermore, slopes make the energy consumption at every location directional and add to the complexity of data collection and energy prediction. In this paper, we address these challenges in a data-driven manner. We consider a function which takes terrain geometry and robot motion direction as input and outputs expected energy consumption. The function is represented as a ResNet-based neural network whose parameters are learned from field-collected data. The prediction accuracy of our method is within 12% of the ground truth in our test environments that are unseen during training. We compare our method to a baseline method in the literature: a method using a basic physics-based model. We demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms it by more than 10% measured by the prediction error. More importantly, our method generalizes better when applied to test data from new environments with various slope angles and navigation directions.

Foveated imaging provides a better tradeoff between situational awareness (field of view) and resolution and is critical in long-wavelength infrared regimes because of the size, weight, power, and cost of thermal sensors. We demonstrate computational foveated imaging by exploiting the ability of a meta-optical frontend to discriminate between different polarization states and a computational backend to reconstruct the captured image/video. The frontend is a three-element optic: the first element which we call the "foveal" element is a metalens that focuses s-polarized light at a distance of $f_1$ without affecting the p-polarized light; the second element which we call the "perifoveal" element is another metalens that focuses p-polarized light at a distance of $f_2$ without affecting the s-polarized light. The third element is a freely rotating polarizer that dynamically changes the mixing ratios between the two polarization states. Both the foveal element (focal length = 150mm; diameter = 75mm), and the perifoveal element (focal length = 25mm; diameter = 25mm) were fabricated as polarization-sensitive, all-silicon, meta surfaces resulting in a large-aperture, 1:6 foveal expansion, thermal imaging capability. A computational backend then utilizes a deep image prior to separate the resultant multiplexed image or video into a foveated image consisting of a high-resolution center and a lower-resolution large field of view context. We build a first-of-its-kind prototype system and demonstrate 12 frames per second real-time, thermal, foveated image, and video capture in the wild.

Large-scale data is an essential component of machine learning as demonstrated in recent advances in natural language processing and computer vision research. However, collecting large-scale robotic data is much more expensive and slower as each operator can control only a single robot at a time. To make this costly data collection process efficient and scalable, we propose Policy Assisted TeleOperation (PATO), a system which automates part of the demonstration collection process using a learned assistive policy. PATO autonomously executes repetitive behaviors in data collection and asks for human input only when it is uncertain about which subtask or behavior to execute. We conduct teleoperation user studies both with a real robot and a simulated robot fleet and demonstrate that our assisted teleoperation system reduces human operators' mental load while improving data collection efficiency. Further, it enables a single operator to control multiple robots in parallel, which is a first step towards scalable robotic data collection. For code and video results, see https://clvrai.com/pato

Class-Incremental Learning is a challenging problem in machine learning that aims to extend previously trained neural networks with new classes. This is especially useful if the system is able to classify new objects despite the original training data being unavailable. While the semantic segmentation problem has received less attention than classification, it poses distinct problems and challenges since previous and future target classes can be unlabeled in the images of a single increment. In this case, the background, past and future classes are correlated and there exist a background-shift. In this paper, we address the problem of how to model unlabeled classes while avoiding spurious feature clustering of future uncorrelated classes. We propose to use Evidential Deep Learning to model the evidence of the classes as a Dirichlet distribution. Our method factorizes the problem into a separate foreground class probability, calculated by the expected value of the Dirichlet distribution, and an unknown class (background) probability corresponding to the uncertainty of the estimate. In our novel formulation, the background probability is implicitly modeled, avoiding the feature space clustering that comes from forcing the model to output a high background score for pixels that are not labeled as objects. Experiments on the incremental Pascal VOC, and ADE20k benchmarks show that our method is superior to state-of-the-art, especially when repeatedly learning new classes with increasing number of increments.

This white paper lays out a vision of research and development in the field of artificial intelligence for the next decade (and beyond). Its denouement is a cyber-physical ecosystem of natural and synthetic sense-making, in which humans are integral participants$\unicode{x2014}$what we call ''shared intelligence''. This vision is premised on active inference, a formulation of adaptive behavior that can be read as a physics of intelligence, and which inherits from the physics of self-organization. In this context, we understand intelligence as the capacity to accumulate evidence for a generative model of one's sensed world$\unicode{x2014}$also known as self-evidencing. Formally, this corresponds to maximizing (Bayesian) model evidence, via belief updating over several scales: i.e., inference, learning, and model selection. Operationally, this self-evidencing can be realized via (variational) message passing or belief propagation on a factor graph. Crucially, active inference foregrounds an existential imperative of intelligent systems; namely, curiosity or the resolution of uncertainty. This same imperative underwrites belief sharing in ensembles of agents, in which certain aspects (i.e., factors) of each agent's generative world model provide a common ground or frame of reference. Active inference plays a foundational role in this ecology of belief sharing$\unicode{x2014}$leading to a formal account of collective intelligence that rests on shared narratives and goals. We also consider the kinds of communication protocols that must be developed to enable such an ecosystem of intelligences and motivate the development of a shared hyper-spatial modeling language and transaction protocol, as a first$\unicode{x2014}$and key$\unicode{x2014}$step towards such an ecology.